WORLD AND TURKEY’S NATURAL GAS DEMAND SCENARIO

Abstract

Although the global energy demand varies from country to country, it is constantly increasing on a global scale. As per IEA’s projections, the usage of two energy sources will increase (renewable with 12% and natural gas with 28%) in the global energy demand until 2040. In the study, 48 number of experts/managers (Decision Makers-DM) working in the energy sector were interviewed to establish/determine 10 main criteria and 43 sub-criteria used in demand scenarios. In the study, fuzzy multi-objective mathematical model (by using fuzzy AHP, and fuzzy TOPSIS) is developed to calculate World's and Turkey’s natural gas demand under high and low demand scenarios. By the help of model, the usage of natural gas amount in World by regions between 2020 and 2030 is calculated. In Scenario-High it will increase by approx. 26 % between 2020 and 2030 and reached 4.800 bcm in 2040. In Scenario-Low it will increase by approx. 5 % from 2020 to 2030 and reached 4.000 bcm in 2030. It is the only fossil fuel expected to grow beyond 2030 since it is clean energy source. In Scenario-High natural gas demand by region is calculated/projected as follows: in 2030 North America 1250 bcm, Central and South America 250 bcm, Europe 650 bcm, Middle East 750 bcm, Eurasia 650 bcm, Asia Pacific 1250 bcm. In the study, under the high demand scenario it has been calculated that the usage of natural gas in Turkey will increase by 52% between 2020 and 2030 and reach approximately 76 bcm, and in the low demand scenario Turkey's total natural gas demand will decrease by approximately 9% and reach approximately 45 bcm. In the study by using Fuzzy TOPSIS method, 10 number of sectors are examined and “Energy sector” was the first and “Industry sector” was the second in the ranking of the sectors in terms of global and Turkey’s natural gas demand scenario. In the study, the usage of natural gas is the only fossil resource that is expected to increase in the global energy mix among fossil fuels in 2030. This is due to high reserve amount of natural gas, i.e. global conventional natural gas reserves with 206 trillion m3 and unconventional unexplored natural gas reserves with 354 trillion m3, and as well as being a clean and environmental-friendly energy source. Since it is a clean fossil fuel and it pollutes nature & air much less than other fossil fuels and has a minimum greenhouse gas emission amount compared to other fossil sources.